The 52-week high,momentum, and predicting mutual fund returns

George and Hwang (J Finance 59:2145–2176, 2004) have shown that the 52-week high share price carries significant predictive ability for individual stock returns, dominating other common momentum-based trading strategies. Based upon their results and other methods, this paper examines and compares the performance of three momentum trading strategies for mutual funds, including an analogous 1-year high measure for the net asset value of mutual fund shares. Strategies based on prior extreme returns and on fund exposure to stock return momentum are also examined. Results show that all three measures have significant, independent, predictive ability for fund returns. Further, each produces a distinctive pattern in momentum profits, whether measured in raw or risk-adjusted returns, with profits from momentum loading being the least transitory. Nearness to the 1-year high and recent extreme returns are significant predictors of fund monthly cash flows, whereas fund momentum loading is not.     

How well do investors understand loss persistence?

This paper examines investors’ expectations of loss persistence. I develop a model to forecast loss firms’ future earnings based on Joos and Plesko, The Accounting Review 80: 847–870, (2005). This model produces smaller forecast errors than two random walk models and a model that assumes losses are transitory. The results suggest that investors do not fully distinguish the differences in loss persistence captured by the model and instead appear to assume that all losses are transitory. Consequently, investors are surprised by future announcements of negative earnings for firms with predicted persistent losses, and these firms experience significantly negative abnormal returns over the following four quarters. Additional results indicate that the future negative returns of firms with predicted persistent losses are smaller in magnitude when these firms are followed by analysts. The results are robust to controls for various price anomalies and are not driven by short sale constraints.     

Measuring Lifetime Redistribution in Dutch Occupational Pensions

Summary  This paper assesses how the Dutch system of occupational pensions redistributes between and within generations. The approach in this paper deviates from the usual approach by incorporating the full life cycle in the measurements, rather than only the annual effects. In order to quantify redistribution, we use the level of educational attainment, gender and age to classify the pension fund population. For all groups distinguished, we measure in present value terms the average net benefit from participating in occupational pensions. The results indicate a sizable redistribution from males to females and from low educated to higher educated workers. On a lifetime basis, the impact of intergenerational transfers is modest. I am grateful to the two anonymous referees, Ed Westerhout, Casper van Ewijk, Lex Meijdam, Yvonne Adema and Peter Kooiman for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper, and to Andre Nibbelink for his valuable computational assistance.     

Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia

Financial globalisation has been associated with divergent current account patterns in emerging markets. In this paper we test for the relevance of financial market characteristics in explaining different current account patterns in emerging Europe and emerging Asia. We find that better developed and more integrated financial markets increase emerging markets’ ability to borrow abroad. The degree of financial integration within the convergence clubs as well as the extent of reserve accumulation are found to be the most significant factors to explain divergent current account patterns in emerging Europe and emerging Asia.     

Preserving Knowledge on IS Business Value

The economic relevance of information systems has been studied for many years and has attracted an abundance of research papers. However, the “productivity paradoxon” of the 1990s, Carr’s widely recognized paper “IT doesn’t matter”, and several studies that do not find a positive correlation between IS investments and economic performance reveal long-lasting difficulties for IS researchers to explain “IS business value”. Business executives and researchers also continue to question the value of IS investments. This raises the question of whether literature reviews have tapped their potential to address the concerns by covering key research areas of IS business value and preserving their key findings. In order to address this question, this paper identifies and describes 12 key research areas, and synthesizes what literature reviews published in pertinent academic outlets have done to preserve knowledge. The analysis of 22 literature reviews shows that some crucial areas have not been (sufficiently) covered. They provide fertile areas for future literature reviews. As this work is based on the results of more than 200 research papers, it is capable of drawing a comprehensive picture of the current state-of-the-art in IS business value research.     

The EU’s new competition policy standards

In a 2008 article in the EU’s Competition Policy Newsletter, Peter Lowe, Director General of the EU Commission’s Directorate Competition, synthesised the experience of his office with regard to the design of competition policy institutions for the 21st century. A year earlier, he had co-authored another article, appearing in the same venue, recapitulating the Commission’s lessons learned from the Energy Sector Inquiry and the need for effective unbundling of energy transmission networks. The reader of both, at first astounded by the apparent gap between policymaking reality and reflections upon it, soon detects a rather pragmatic approach to shaping regulatory agendas. But are there limits to expediency?